Fantasy Baker: A data-driven game for GBBO fans
Every fall, I cozy up with my mom to watch The Great British Bake Off. Together, we become armchair experts – spouting the merits of rough puff vs short crust pastry, chiding bakers who beat too much air out of their delicate meringues, and judge the judges’ judgments (Paul Hollywood always seems to find someone to be particularly critical of).
Over the years, we’ve noticed some patterns. For example, there are certain contestant archetypes. There’s always the young savant who somehow knows all the classics but also dazzles with their creativity. There’s the engineer strapped with levels, protractors, and custom molds who bakes with rigid precision according to a to-the-minute time sheet. Then there’s the foundation of GBBO: the stellar home cook who learned to bake from her grandmother and will pass the skill to her own granddaughter.
There are some familiar story arcs, too. Some contestants start shaky and build confidence and momentum throughout the season. Others shine week after week only to get sent home on their first fumble. Still others are a total wildcard- any given week it could be a “triumph” or “not worth the calories” (as Prue Leith might say).
From casual commentary to friendly competition
Eventually, our casual commentary evolved into something a bit more competitive. Could we predict who would make it to the finale based on Episode 1 alone? Who would win Star Baker, or go home next? Thus, Fantasy Baker was born.
Fantasy Baker is our homespun, friendly competition that gives GBBO fans some buy-in on their favorite show. Players make predictions about which bakers will reach the Top 6, the finale, or win it all, as well as who will rack up the most Star Baker titles or technical challenge wins. Then, week by week, everyone submits their picks for who’s next to win Star Baker or go home.
Fantasy Baker began as a way for my mom and me to enjoy the show together remotely during COVID. Year by year, friends joined in, and this season (our fifth) we had 31 contestants. With that kind of crowd, I had to build a Shiny app to collate all this very important data.
Introducing the Fantasy Baker app
The Fantasy Baker app is a one stop shop for our league. The home page explains all the rules, meaning you’re well equipped to start your own league next season! The “GBBO Contestants” tab profiles all bakers, including how many challenges they’ve won and how far they made it in the competition. This page proved particularly useful early in the season when we were still getting to know the bakers.
The heart of the app is the “Blog” page. This is where I recap our predictions each week and dive into the data. I make charts summarizing the group’s predictions, analyze participants’ picks on a continuum of “mainstream” to “unique”, update a racing bar chart with Fantasy Baker standings, and of course share memes of key moments. I tried to match the style of the app to the show – shrouded in baby blue gingham, with calming pastels and plenty of “pie” charts.
The secret recipes behind our picks
It’s been fun to compare my own picks against the field. Some weeks, I’d pick Star Baker completely at random, only to discover the majority had the same hunch. Other times, I thought it was plainly obvious who was going home next, only to find no one agreed (usually I was wrong).
Turns out, everyone uses different data to make their picks. Some people focus solely on past performance in challenges. Others factor in secondary attributes like tidiness, camera time, disposition, or creativity. And at the end of the day, it’s hard to avoid a bias; I definitely can’t help but vote for the bakers I like and want to see stick around.
ChatGPT enters the tent…
Speaking of prediction strategies, this year we had a mysterious new competitor: ChatGPT. One participant decided to let AI make their picks. They’ve been tight-lipped about what prompts they are using or what sources Chat GPT is mining to make the predictions. But whatever the formula, they’re doing quite well. Outperforming all human contestants, in fact. ChatGPT topped the leaderboard Week 7 and, going into the finale, there are almost no scenarios where it doesn’t win it all. I suppose there are limits to the human mind.
Looking back on five seasons of Fantasy Baker, I think what makes it special is how it invites us to pay closer attention. Come to think of it, all my favorite hobbies are made richer through a data lens. Whether it’s logging running miles and PRs with Strava, keeping a “lifer” list in birding, tallying trivia scores, or tracking books on Goodreads—sometimes a little data adds a lot of delight.
Fantasy Baker started as a way to connect across distance, but it’s grown into something bigger: a reminder that paying close attention can turn a comfort TV show into a shared ritual, a friendly competition, and a joyful (if slightly overengineered) game.